Wind speed prediction using multidimensional convolutional neural networks

Accurate wind speed forecasting is of great importance for many economic, business and management sectors. This paper introduces a new model based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for wind speed prediction tasks. In particular, we show that compared to classical CNN-based models, the proposed model is able to better characterise the spatio-temporal evolution of the wind data by learning the underlying complex input-output relationships from multiple dimensions (views) of the input data. The proposed model exploits the spatio-temporal multivariate multidimensional historical weather data for learning new representations used for wind forecasting. We conduct experiments on two real-life weather datasets. The datasets are measurements from cities in Denmark and in the Netherlands. The proposed model is compared with traditional 2- and 3-dimensional CNN models, a 2D-CNN model with an attention layer and a 2D-CNN model equipped with upscaling and depthwise separable convolutions.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Block method for numerical solution of fuzzy differential equations

In this paper the 2 point 2 step method for solving fuzzy initial value problem is proposed. This method at each step will estimate the solutions of the fuzzy initial value problem at two points simultaneously using variable step size. The stability of the proposed method is discussed. Examples are presented to illustrate the computational aspect of the method

SmaAt-UNet: Precipitation Nowcasting using a Small Attention-UNet Architecture

Weather forecasting is dominated by numerical weather prediction that tries to model accurately the physical properties of the atmosphere. A downside of numerical weather prediction is that it is lacking the ability for short-term forecasts using the latest available information. By using a data-driven neural network approach we show that it is possible to produce an accurate precipitation nowcast. To this end, we propose SmaAt-UNet, an efficient convolutional neural networks-based on the well known UNet architecture equipped with attention modules and depthwise-separable convolutions. We evaluate our approaches on a real-life datasets using precipitation maps from the region of the Netherlands and binary images of cloud coverage of France. The experimental results show that in terms of prediction performance, the proposed model is comparable to other examined models while only using a quarter of the trainable parameters.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Deep Graph Convolutional Networks for Wind Speed Prediction

In this paper, we introduce a new model for wind speed prediction based on spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks. Here, weather stations are treated as nodes of a graph with a learnable adjacency matrix, which determines the strength of relations between the stations based on the historical weather data. The self-loop connection is added to the learnt adjacency matrix and its strength is controlled by additional learnable parameter. Experiments performed on real datasets collected from weather stations located in Denmark and the Netherlands show that our proposed model outperforms previously developed baseline models on the referenced datasets

Deep coastal sea elements forecasting using U-Net based models

The supply and demand of energy is influenced by meteorological conditions. The relevance of accurate weather forecasts increases as the demand for renewable energy sources increases. The energy providers and policy makers require weather information to make informed choices and establish optimal plans according to the operational objectives. Due to the recent development of deep learning techniques applied to satellite imagery, weather forecasting that uses remote sensing data has also been the subject of major progress. The present paper investigates multiple steps ahead frame prediction for coastal sea elements in the Netherlands using U-Net based architectures. Hourly data from the Copernicus observation programme spanned over a period of 2 years has been used to train the models and make the forecasting, including seasonal predictions. We propose a variation of the U-Net architecture and further extend this novel model using residual connections, parallel convolutions and asymmetric convolutions in order to introduce three additional architectures. In particular, we show that the architecture equipped with parallel and asymmetric convolutions as well as skip connections outperforms the other three discussed models.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Broad-UNet: Multi-scale feature learning for nowcasting tasks

Weather nowcasting consists of predicting meteorological components in the short term at high spatial resolutions. Due to its influence in many human activities, accurate nowcasting has recently gained plenty of attention. In this paper, we treat the nowcasting problem as an image-to-image translation problem using satellite imagery. We introduce Broad-UNet, a novel architecture based on the core UNet model, to efficiently address this problem. In particular, the proposed Broad-UNet is equipped with asymmetric parallel convolutions as well as Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP) module. In this way, the Broad-UNet model learns more complex patterns by combining multi-scale features while using fewer parameters than the core UNet model. The proposed model is applied on two different nowcasting tasks, i.e. precipitation maps and cloud cover nowcasting. The obtained numerical results show that the introduced Broad-UNet model performs more accurate predictions compared to the other examined architectures

GCN-FFNN: A two-stream deep model for learning solution to partial differential equations

This paper introduces a novel two-stream deep model based on graph convolutional network (GCN) architecture and feed-forward neural networks (FFNN) for learning the solution of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). The model aims at incorporating both graph and grid input representations using two streams corresponding to GCN and FFNN models, respectively. Each stream layer receives and processes its input representation. As opposed to FFNN which receives a grid-like structure, the GCN stream layer operates on graph input data where the neighborhood information is incorporated through the adjacency matrix of the graph. In this way, the proposed GCN-FFNN model learns from two types of input representations, i.e. grid and graph data, obtained via the discretization of the PDE domain. The GCN-FFNN model is trained in two phases. In the first phase, the model parameters of each stream are trained separately. Both streams employ the same error function to adjust their parameters by enforcing the models to satisfy the given PDE as well as its initial and boundary conditions on grid or graph collocation (training) data. In the second phase, the learned parameters of two-stream layers are frozen and their learned representation solutions are fed to fully connected layers whose parameters are learned using the previously used error function. The learned GCN-FFNN model is tested on test data located both inside and outside the PDE domain. The obtained numerical results demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed GCN-FFNN model over individual GCN and FFNN models on 1D-Burgers, 1D-Schrödinger, 2D-Burgers, and 2D-Schrödinger equations

SmaAt-UNet: Precipitation nowcasting using a small attention-UNet architecture

Weather forecasting is dominated by numerical weather prediction that tries to model accurately the physical properties of the atmosphere. A downside of numerical weather prediction is that it is lacking the ability for short-term forecasts using the latest available information. By using a data-driven neural network approach we show that it is possible to produce an accurate precipitation nowcast. To this end, we propose SmaAt-UNet, an efficient convolutional neural networks-based on the well known UNet architecture equipped with attention modules and depthwise-separable convolutions. We evaluate our approaches on a real-life datasets using precipitation maps from the region of the Netherlands and binary images of cloud coverage of France. The experimental results show that in terms of prediction performance, the proposed model is comparable to other examined models while only using a quarter of the trainable parameters